The Conspiracy to Keep You Poor and Stupid is a trademark of Donald L. Luskin

Latest
Media Infiltrations:

Obama's Social Security Fine Print
The Wall Street Journal
June 25, 2008
Commodity-Prices Scapegoats
The Wall Street Journal
June 3, 2008

Krugman Truth Squad logo, courtesy Tom Miller, Atomic Art: admin@atomicart.com

Peter Sellers and Peter Bull in ''Dr. Strangelove'' Columbia Pictures, 1964 -- Click to order!

"What has been your worst blogging experience?
Donald Luskin."
-- Brad DeLong

"That's a guy who actually stalks me on the Web and once stalked me personally."
-- Paul Krugman

"I'm saying this...guy's a jerk."
-- Charlie Gasparino

What I'm reading:
cover
A Bound Man
Shelby Steele

What I'm listening to:
cover
Langley Schools Music Project

What I'm watching:
cover
There Will Be Blood

What I'm playing:
cover
Speed Racer

Order these from Amazon.com
at Amazon's normal low prices...
and a fraction of your order goes
to help support this site.
Thanks!

Amazon Honor SystemClick Here to PayLearn More

Thanks to Irwin Chusid, public editor.

Copyright 2002 thru 2008
Donald L. Luskin
All rights reserved.
"The Conspiracy to
Keep You Poor and Stupid"
and "Krugman Truth Squad"
are trademarks of
Donald L. Luskin
www.poorandstupid.com

Logo by Tommy Carnase 1995

"The road is cleared," said Galt.
"We are going back to the world."
He raised his hand
and over the desolate earth
he traced in space
the sign of the dollar.

From Atlas Shrugged
by Ayn Rand

From each as they choose,
to each as they are chosen.

From Anarchy, State and Utopia
by Robert Nozick

"there is some shit I will not eat"

From i sing of olaf glad and big
by e. e. cummings

Some of the sites
that have linked to us!
* recently updated


In Association with Amazon.com

Powered by Blogger Pro™

Powered by Blogger Pro™

Chronicle of the Conspiracy
Join us as we discover, document, expose and challenge the bad people, the bad institutions and the bad ideas that stand in the way of wealth creation -- and show you how to fight back!

Saturday, December 21, 2002

Get new major postings to this weblog via email -- free.
Click here to sign up!
ANOTHER MORGENSON AT&T COVER-UP   
The New York Times tries to pass it off as "news analysis" today, but it's just Gretchen Morgenson dancing on Jack Grubman's grave. And she's dancing very, very carefully. Today, according to Morgenson, Grubman's sins are the over-optimistic things he wrote about WorldCom. Gone -- silent -- unmentioned -- down the memory hole! -- are the accusations Morgenson was making a few weeks ago about Grubman's 1999 "buy" rating on the since-collapsed stock of AT&T. Morgenson had claimed Grubman's advice was tainted by a quid pro quo in which Grubman's rating would help Citigroup CEO Sandy Weill win his internal political wars, and Weill would help get Grubman's kids into a private nursery school.

Morgenson has to dance gingerly now when it comes to AT&T because Citigroup's settlement Friday with New York State attorney general Eliot Spitzer and other regulators specifically lets Weill off the hook for lack of evidence of wrong-doing. That's not an occasion for a retraction from Morgenson, of course -- just silence. But more important, Morgenson doesn't want to talk about AT&T now because I've exposed her own 1999 "buy" rating on it, in which she went so far as to recommend AT&T "for widows and orphans." And I've exposed her shameful cover-up of her own "buy" rating, in which she falsely claimed that all she had done was quote a too-bullish analyst.

So let's talk about WorldCom instead. Let's do more than talk -- let's do "Queen for a Day," and let the audience applause-meter measure the pathos of competing sob stories from Grubman's alleged victims. We have two contestants today...

  • First up in Morgenson's story is an 88-year old man who Morgenson says lost $10.7 million in Worldcom -- "I'm broke. I have to start saving pennies now... It has affected my health... Whatever Grubman wrote sounded very good." How did a guy this dumb get rich enough to have enough to lose $10.7 million in a single stock just because some analyst said it "sounded very good"? No matter -- the applause-meter is in the red-zone!
  • Next is a woman who "lost hundreds of thousands of dollars following Mr. Grubman's upbeat advice on WorldCom." Hmmm, those losses aren't very impressive -- but she gets extra points on the applause-meter because, as Morgenson tells us, she is taking "care of her ailing mother." But wait, does it count against her that she is a former spokeswoman employed by -- get this... WorldCom itself! -- where she was possibly in a position to know more about the company than Grubman? It's all up to our studio audience!

Unfortunately, we're out of time on the show. We can't bring on any widows or orphans who bought AT&T on Gretchen Morgenson's advice, when it was trading above $60 (now it's at $26.58, having been far lower earlier this year). I know what my own personal applause-meter would show on this one. I'd have a lot more sympathy for the huge number of relatively uninformed ordinary folks who read the New York Times, and bought AT&T because its trusted columnist told them it was appropriate for widows and orphans, than I would for the handful of relatively sophisticated investors who were exposed to Grubman's reports.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:36 PM | link   


Thursday, December 19, 2002

Get new major postings to this weblog via email -- free.
Click here to sign up!
BRAD DELONG'S ELEPHANT-SHIT   
Usually when the media talks about the economy, it's bull-shit. Usually when an academic economist talks about the economy, it's elephant-shit. The words are fancier, the credentials are more imposing -- but elephant-shit is still shit. And it's no better when the economist camouflages himself as hip guy who runs a weblog and writes a column for Wired magazine. That's Brad DeLong, the UC Berkeley economics professor (okay, no snide guilt-by-association cracks about Cal -- there are some good minds there at the business school, at least in finance).

On his weblog yesterday, DeLong weighed in with an argument in support of the core proposition of "Rubinomics," which is an anti-growth anti-tax-cut political point of view disguised as a law of economic nature (and which we roundly refuted earlier this week). That point of view holds that federal budget deficits lead to higher interest rates. Commenting on a lengthy report on this proposition that ran in the Wall Street Journal yesterday -- which was bull-shit -- DeLong contributed the following elephant-shit dropping:

Surprise News: Budget Deficits Slow Growth

[The Wall Street Journal writes] that budget deficits slow economic growth and raise interest rates. In truth, this is only something that needs to be done in Washington D.C. In a normal place, a normal economist would say:

  • Demand curves slope down.
  • A government budget deficit increases the quantity supplied of bonds.
  • Because demand curves slope down, a rise in the quantity supplied of bonds reduces the price of bonds.
  • The interest rate is inversely related to the price of bonds.
  • End of story.

...Given the strength of the case against, only analytically weak and excessively partisan economists will back the Bush administration on this one.

Don't be intimidated by the intellectual bullying at the end -- it's DeLong that's "analytically weak" here (like most "normal economists," by the way). Consider:

  • DeLong's argument doesn't even begin to address the matter it is designed to prove. The assertion in the headline is that "deficits slow growth," yet the argument is about deficits driving up interest rates. Do higher interest rates slow growth? DeLong doesn't say. Analytically weak.
  • Is DeLong's purely theoretical first-principles argument confirmed by experience? No. The federal budget has swung from surplus to deficit, yet rates are as low as they've been in over 40 years. In Japan, government debt exceeds GDP, yet Japanese interest rates are even lower than ours. For this to be true, there must be more factors at work in the real world than are captured in DeLong's paradigm. Analytically weak.
  • DeLong thinks deficits are bad, but he doesn't say what to do about them -- his argument is hardly the "End of story" that he claims. Since he endorses the arguments of those who oppose tax-cuts, presumably he would argue that deficits should be cured by increasing taxes. But using the very same first-principles argument that DeLong has already adduced, such a cure would make interest rates no lower than if the deficit had been left alone. Higher taxes would lower the pool of available savings, which would leave bond prices at precisely the same point on the demand curve (thanks to the supply of savings decreasing at the same time as a decrease in the demand for borrowing against them). Analytically weak.

At its heart, DeLong's argument -- like the proposition it is intended to support -- is just a distraction. The real question is not whether deficits retard growth -- it's whether tax-cuts stimulate growth. The question is whether lowering taxes will be a deadweight cost to government in the form of lower revenues, or whether the cuts would stimulate enough new economic activity to pay for themselves and more. And another question is how big the government's expense budget should be in the first place (entirely apart from how it is financed). And what should that budget be spent on?

But we can't get to those questions, because the "normal economist" Brad DeLong has buttonholed us at the water cooler in the faculty lounge at UC Berkeley, and is showing off how much he knows about the laws of economic nature. OK professor, I'm impressed. That's some fine elephant-shit you've got there. But sorry -- gotta run. I live in the real world and it's time to get back to it. There are battles to be won.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:40 AM | link   

UN-FACT OF THE DAY: GRATED EXPECTATIONS    From our erstwhile informant "Irrational Exuberance," more evidence that you can't trust anything you read.

Here's a Dow Jones wire story with the headline "U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Fell More Than Expected." The text says,

"Initial jobless claims fell by 11,000 to 433,000 in the week that ended Dec. 14, the Labor Department said Thursday.

"That number wasn't as large as Wall Street's expectations for a 41,000 decrease in claims, according to a consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC."

Which is true? Text or headline? What source would you trust to determine which?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:18 AM | link   


Wednesday, December 18, 2002

STEELE ON LOTT    Shelby Steele has now weighed in on the Trent Lott controversy. A Hoover Institution scholar and the author of The Content of Our Character: A New Vision of Race in America, Steele is the most inspiring spokesman about race relations from the libertarian universe, and I mentioned him in my Sunday commentary on Lott. In a must-read op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal, Steel offers the deepest reason why freedom-loving conservatives should call for Lott's removal from the Senate leadership:

"This is all terrible for Republicans and conservatives because the best thinking on social problems and race in recent years has come from their ranks. Conservatism (or classic liberalism) has wanted to correct for the paternalistic and racialist social engineering of 1960s-style reform without seeming to be against reform itself. How do you say, I'm against policies designed to help you, but I'm not against you?

"...A vacuum of white guilt as wide as the Grand Canyon has opened in him, and he will never again see civil rights, welfare, judgeships or education with a clear eye. He will now live in a territory of irony where his redemption will be purchased through support for racialist social reforms that make a virtue of the same segregationist spirit that has now brought him low."


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:54 AM | link   


Tuesday, December 17, 2002

Get new major postings to this weblog via email -- free.
Click here to sign up!
HOW TO READ GRETCHEN MORGENSON AND SURVIVE   
If you absolutely must read Gretchen Morgenson's columns on the front page of the New York Times business section every Sunday, here's how to do it. First, put the entire Sunday Times in a biohazard-safe observation chamber. Then, carefully controlling the waldoes with your hands from outside the chamber, grasp the front page of the business section, and turn it so you can see the area below the fold. Then just read the damn thing -- and take it apart paragraph by paragraph, like this.

Here's last Sunday's. Morgenson's entire text is here, indented. My comments are interspersed, without indent.

In the Empire of Siebel, Stirrings of Rebellion

At last, more and more institutional shareholders are sharpening their pitchforks and taking them up against imperial corporate executives.

Always be wary when a column begins with "At last..." That means you're about to read a column that uses some news event as a hook to promote a point of view that the columnist already had. Look for proof that the news hook actually ties into anything larger than itself -- in this case, Morgenson doesn't mention even a single other example of the "more and more institutional investors" who are doing this "at last."

And beware of metaphors used in place of logic or proof -- this column has two metaphor layers. As you will see, the news hook turns out to be an investor lawsuit against a public company. But Morgenson doesn't just report the facts about it -- before she even describes it she's already framed it metaphorically as a story of class warfare. She offers no proof that the lawsuit is about any such grandiose thing, however -- but that lack is papered over with more metaphor. Siebel is an "empire" and its executives are "imperial." The opposition are noble but oppressed peasants whose only weapons are their humble "pitchforks." Morgenson uses these metaphors to frame her class-warfare case because she doesn't have the confidence or the brazenness of Times columnist and former paid member of Enron's Advisory Board Paul Krugman -- he'd skip the metaphors and just call the executives "plutocrats" and those opposed to them "decent people." 

The Teachers' Retirement System of Louisiana has sued Siebel Systems, contending that since 1996, the company's board has awarded more stock options to Thomas M. Siebel, the founder and chief, than shareholders have approved and that some grants to Siebel directors have not been disclosed. The suit also contends that the company has improperly accounted for options issued at a discount to prevailing market prices. As a result, the suit questions Mr. Siebel's certification in August of the company's financial statements.

This paragraph is apparently factual. (I have not independently verified Morgenson's characterization of the issues in the lawsuit.)

The $10.6 billion retirement fund, which owns 392,000 Siebel shares, has asked executives and directors, including Charles R. Schwab, the brokerage firm executive, to return what it calls the "tainted options." Mr. Schwab did not return a call seeking comment.

Here the column starts evolving from fact to spin. Why, of all the directors, single out Charles Schwab? Because he's famous? Because he is associated with the Bush administration? And note that the factual description of what the Teachers' Retirement System of Louisiana has asked -- the return of the options -- is expressed from their partisan point of view: return of "what it calls the 'tainted options.'" 

Stuart M. Grant, a partner at Grant & Eisenhofer in Wilmington, Del., represents the pension fund. Siebel Systems "fosters an environment of the all-powerful C.E.O. and an abdicating board," he said. "They are fighting us, but we're saying, 'If you cure this corporate governance problem, you will be a better company.'"

Nothing in this quotation of the retirement plan's lawyer supports the merit of the case. What it supports is the theme of Morgenson's column -- that Siebel is a corrupt empire and that those who oppose it are noble. Readers of this column have no way of knowing what else, if anything, the lawyer told Morgenson -- she gets to decide what questions to ask him, and she gets to decide what to print. This is what she chose.

A Siebel spokesman said that the company had never issued options at discounts to the market price and that its accounting and disclosure were proper. The company called the suit baseless; it must file a response by Christmas.

Seibel's response is presented much more matter-of-factly, with no actual quotations from named company officials. Did Morgenson actually talk to anyone at Siebel, or did she get this information about Siebel's response elsewhere (court filings, press releases, other media coverage)... she doesn't say. But the result is that Morgenson presents the pension fund in a humanized, colorful and sympathetic way -- but not Siebel.

Since its creation in 1993, Siebel has been a big believer in stock options. From 1996 through 2001, Mr. Siebel received options worth almost $1 billion at the time of the grant, the lawsuit says. Siebel Systems' stock has lost 94 percent of its value since its 2000 peak and is down 72 percent this year, so many of his options are underwater. But from 1998 to 2001, Mr. Siebel exercised almost six million options and realized gains of $321 million related to them.

This paragraph is a troubling mixture of fact, judgment, and self-interested advocacy. How does Morgenson know that Siebel has been a "big believer" in stock options, and what does that mean, and why is it relevant? The unavoidably subjective $1 billion valuation of Mr. Siebel's options at the time of grant (options have no tangible value until and unless they are exercised) is provided by the retirement fund that is suing the company. We are not told the source of the statistics of Mr. Siebel's realized profits. Fact? Allegation in the suit?

From 1996 to 2000, according to the suit, Mr. Siebel got the maximum number of options and a higher salary and a bonus. In recent years, according to the complaint, the compensation committee met less and less.

In 1996, when he received $320,000 in cash and two million options, the committee met five times. In 2000, when he got $2.5 million in cash and eight million options, it met once. Last year, the committee did not meet at all. It gave Mr. Siebel only $1 in cash compensation but again gave him the maximum eight million options.

According to the suit, the compensation committee members realized more than $36 million through their own option exercises. They are A. Michael Spence, a partner at Oak Hill Venture Partners, and Eric E. Schmidt, the chairman of closely held Google Inc., the Internet search engine. Mr. Spence did not reply to an e-mail message seeking comment; Mr. Schmidt did not return a phone call.

These three paragraphs are simply recitations of the claims of the lawsuit -- much as the plaintiff's lawyer might make as part of summing up before a jury -- but not all the claims are labeled as allegations, and the significance of the allegations is not examined. Is it important how many times a compensation committee meets? Why? Is it important how much members of the compensation committee earned? Why? Who knows, but I guess Morgenson must think it sounds bad. So there it is, uncritically reported.

Siebel Systems says its option program motivates employees, but it is not clear why Mr. Siebel needs motivating. He owns 7.5 percent of the company's stock, a stake that is worth around $280 million at current prices.

Now a small concession to balance -- but it doesn't even last an entire sentence. We are not told the source of the defense that Morgenson puts in Siebel's mouth -- "Siebel Systems says its option program motivates employees" -- but we are told in the very same sentence that it is inadequate, because "it is not clear why Mr. Siebel needs motivating."

Not clear to whom? Gretchen Morgenson? Of what possible significance is it as a moral criterion whether Mr. Siebel's need for motivation is "clear" to a newspaper columnist?

But it's not about clarity at all -- that's just a pompous figure of speech that should have been edited out. The issue is that Morgenson has arbitrarily decided -- apparently based on no research or analysis at all -- that Siebel's 7.5% stake in the company he created ought to be enough to motivate him. But why? Maybe 8.5% is required. Or maybe 7.5% is already too much, and it actually de-motivates him and ought to be cut in half. Whatever it is, what makes Morgenson or anyone else but Mr. Siebel and his board and his shareholders expert about it?

Siebel's reaction to the case shows that its executives continue to believe that me-first practices, so common during the bubble, are fine even now. Before the suit was filed, Mr. Grant said, the fund tried to persuade the Siebel executives to make the board more independent and return the options it said had been granted improperly. The fund also asked Siebel to let an independent accountant decide the option accounting issue. Siebel declined on both counts.

"Siebel's reaction"? What reaction? Morgenson has not directly quoted any reaction at all -- what reaction was indirectly reported earlier in the column was a flat-out denial of the charges, and now nothing more than that Siebel doesn't wish to let an independent accountant decide an issue that it believes should not be in contention. Why is denial of wrong-doing an example of "me-first practices"? If Gretchen Morgenson were falsely accused of taking a bag of potato chips from Floyd Norris's desk, would it be a "me-first practice" if she denied it? Whom other than herself would she be putting first by lying about it and confessing to a crime she didn't commit?

Amazing, isn't it, how some executives think it's still O.K. to stuff their pockets with stock options, then stiff-arm the owners who complain?

If to deny wrong-doing is to stiff-arm, then Morgenson's arms are a stiff as anyone else's. A couple weeks ago I exposed her deceptive attempt to cover up her 1999 column in which she recommended the stock of AT&T for widows and orphans, by falsely characterizing it as the opinion of an analyst whom she in fact had quoted only tangentially. I called Morgenson for comments, and she denied that it was a cover-up.

As Morgenson might say, "Amazing, isn't it?"

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:48 AM | link   


Monday, December 16, 2002

Get new major postings to this weblog via email -- free.
Click here to sign up!
UN-FACT OF THE DAY: THE GIANT SEA SPARROW THAT NEVER WAS   
It's not about the markets or the economy or the war on capitalism, but I just had to make this the Un-fact of the Day. Here's a correction in the New York Times Magazine on Sunday that's about the funniest you'll ever see. But don't let the sheer absurdity of it cause you to miss its implications. Here it is:
"An article on Nov. 10 about animal rights referred erroneously to an island in the Indian Ocean and to events there involving goats and endangered giant sea sparrows that could possibly lead to the killing of goats by environmental groups. Wrightson Island does not exist; both the island and the events are hypothetical figments from a book (also mentioned in the article), 'Beginning Again,' by David Ehrenfeld. No giant sea sparrow is known to be endangered by the eating habits of goats."
The original article containing the error was "An Animal's Place" by Michael Pollan, a 7490-word feature on -- believe it or not -- the civil rights of animals. Here's the original passage:
"In 1611 Juan da Goma (aka Juan the Disoriented) made accidental landfall on Wrightson Island, a six-square-mile rock in the Indian Ocean. The island's sole distinction is as the only known home of the Arcania tree and the bird that nests in it, the Wrightson giant sea sparrow. Da Goma and his crew stayed a week, much of that time spent in a failed bid to recapture the ship's escaped goat -- who happened to be pregnant. Nearly four centuries later, Wrightson Island is home to 380 goats that have consumed virtually every scrap of vegetation in their reach. The youngest Arcania tree on the island is more than 300 years old, and only 52 sea sparrows remain. In the animal rights view, any one of those goats have at least as much right to life as the last Wrightson sparrow on earth, and the trees, because they are not sentient, warrant no moral consideration whatsoever. (In the mid-80's a British environmental group set out to shoot the goats, but was forced to cancel the expedition after the Mammal Liberation Front bombed its offices.)"
As absurd as the correction sounds today, if you had been reading the original article six weeks ago, would you have questioned this passage? Would you have questioned the satirical tone of "Juan the Disoriented" -- the Swiftian style of the "Arcania" tree -- the absurdity of a "Mammal Liberation Front"? Or would you have just accepted it, relying on the reputation of the New York Times, the author, the editor, the paper's fact-checkers? Would you have just figured, hey, this is America's "newspaper of record" -- it's gotta be right…! Sure why not… after all, it's further damning evidence of man's meddling with nature, and his bumbling attempts to put things right.

Just remember this next time you read a story or a commentary in the New York Times' business section or op-ed page by Morgenson or Krugman or Altman or Norris. Remember that there are some things that the New York Times doesn't bother to fact-check, because they regard them to be self-evidently true -- no matter how absurd. So you're just going to have to do your own fact-checking, aren't you?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 3:19 PM | link   


Sunday, December 15, 2002

Get new major postings to this weblog via email -- free.
Click here to sign up!
LOTT   
Trent Lott must go as Senate majority leader. His racist remarks and his phony repentance are unconscionable and unforgivable.

Lott has been an ineffective agent for the pro-growth and pro-capitalist point of view. But now an already ineffective leader has rendered himself downright counterproductive. His racist remarks have cost him his moral legitimacy, and without that a leader simply cannot lead -- and, indeed, should not.

The issue of moral legitimacy was driven home for me by a presentation I heard at a Cato Institute meeting several months ago by Hoover Institution scholar Shelby Steele, who has written extensively about race relations in politics, education and business (his best known book is the remarkable The Content of Our Character: A New Vision of Race in America). Steele argued that race relations are now the central focus of public morality, and the acid test of moral authority and legitimacy. Steele points out that, in the 1950s, President Dwight Eisenhower was quoted in the press as having used a particular racial slur -- the N-word -- on the golf course. It was handled as a minor embarrassment, and it soon passed. If he had been caught having an affair with a White House intern and then lied about it, he would have been driven out of office in a matter of weeks. In the modern era, President Bill Clinton survived impeachment over sexual misconduct and lying about it. Steele invites us to ask ourselves: what would have happened if, during the impeachment process, a videotape had surfaced in which Clinton were caught speaking the N-word to Monica Lewinsky? Surely then George Bush's opponent in the last presidential election would have been President Al Gore.

A leader who has lost moral legitimacy cannot lead -- he is forever a follower, willing to compromise with anyone and anything in order to find forgiveness. The cause of growth and capitalism needs a legitimate leader, and should never be made to compromise. So while politics may make strange bedfellows, it's high time that advocates of growth and capitalism got the hell out of bed with Trent Lott and anyone else like him. We should never have been there to begin with, and now our own moral legitimacy is at stake. Suddenly, gone are the days when anyone could say, "Well, yes, he's a racist -- but he always votes for tax cuts." Now we must make that a much shorter sentence: "He's a racist." Period. We can find better people to vote for tax cuts.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:34 PM | link   


There's more...visit the archives!