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Chronicle of the Conspiracy Friday, October 29, 2004 COUNTER-MANIPULATION? The Bush re-election futures contracts on Tradesports.com have popped back up to where they were yesterday -- about 54.5 -- before a massive speculative attack knocked them down to as low as 49.5. Is this just the market bobbing back up to where it really belongs once the attack is over? Or is there a counter-manipulation going on? You can never know for sure, but I've been watching all the action trade-by-trade, and it sure looks to me like yesterday was an attack and today is not. For one thing, yesterday's decline happened on massive volume -- just what you'd expect when someone comes in to try to hammer a market. Today's action is on somewhat higher-than-normal volume, but nothing special -- I don't see any evidence of anyone trying to move prices for the sake of moving prices.
That said, we have to remember something very essential about what these futures contracts are really telling us at this point. With four days to go, if there really were a favorite in this contest, the contract would be pricing him at 80. Anything from 30 to 70 is, functionally, a prediction of a toss-up. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:51 PM | link
TAXED TO DEATH? It really can happen. Thanks again to reader Jill Olson. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:41 PM | link
OK, NOW DO YOU GET IT? I've been saying over and over for months that the stock market would prefer to see Bush re-elected. Seems obvious to me, looking at the correlation between the market and Bush's poll numbers. But the hate-mail continues to pour in every time I say it. So let the doubters read this -- a point by point accounting of all the ways John Kerry's legislative record reveals his opposition to the interests of investors. Look at his positions on capital gains taxation, dividend taxation, tax-free savings accounts, tort reform, free trade... it goes on and on. QED. Thanks to reader Jill Olson for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:38 PM | link
THANK HEAVEN FOR LITTLE GIRLS A good friend wrote the other day to share an essay on Bush and Kerry by a 15 year old girl he knows, written for a class assignment at La Jolla High School. I sent it on to our friends at National Review Online, and they agreed with me that Courtney Sorenson's essay was so good, they published it! Check it out -- and never let anyone make you think that young Americans will only vote for Kerry. Hmmm, well on second thought, there are probably plenty of 15 year olds (and 115 year olds, too) who will vote for Kerry (but hopefully those votes won't be counted). Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:20 PM | link
AL GORE MAY HAVE INVENTED THE INTERNET, BUT... ...according to CNET News.com, Republicans trounced Democrats in a scorecard of key technology votes compiled by CNET News.com that illuminates stark differences in the two parties' voting history in the U.S. Congress over nearly a decade.Thanks to reader Daniel Miller for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:19 PM | link
WHO NEEDS A "PUBLIC EDITOR"? Reader Dick Sheppard sends along an email he got from the publisher of the New York Times -- explaining (in far more detail than Dan Okrent's form blow-off) where the Times stands on the Al Qaqaa story. I thought you'd be interested in this response which comes from the Executive Editor.What the original story "made clear" isn't as "clear" as this note suggests. But at least it's a substantive response. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:49 AM | link
Thursday, October 28, 2004 NEW AND IMPROVED CONSPIRACY THEORY Here's reader Norbert Schlenker with a Bush futures contract conspiracy theory even deeper and darker and weirder than mine:I should disclose that I am personally short Dubya at Tradesports, albeit at much higher levels. I am considering covering because I cannot believe that a person with Karl Rove's record doesn't have ammo yet in reserve. And no, neither my short nor covering has moved or would move the market half a penny. It's just pure entertainment. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:00 PM | link
JUDE GOES FOR KERRY Reader Don Noone asked me to comment on the fact that supply-side economics guru Jude Wanniski -- present at the creation of the revolution -- came out yesterday with an endorsement of John Kerry for president. I'm not all that surprised by it. Jude has always been identified with the Republican party, but he has always gone his own way, too. And he was never much of a George Bush fan. In 2000 he mocked Bush in the primaries -- he was the first one to call him "Shrub," as far as I know. He became a strong Bush convert when Dick Cheney was selected as Bush's running mate. Historians of the supply-side movement will recall that Cheney was present with Jude at that fabled dinner at which Arthur Laffer sketched what Jude would someday christen "the Laffer curve" on a cocktail napkin -- and Reaganomics was born. But Jude has always been very sympathetic to Islamic causes -- not in any post-911 collaborationist sense, but out of a sincere (if misguided) interest in global pluralism, justice and inclusiveness -- so now Jude counts Cheney among the evil neocons who are helping America take over the world. He suggests that one key reason not to vote for Bush is that Cheney, Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld and all the rest are sure to be fixtures of a second Bush term. Jude has also always been a gridlock fan, and he seems to look forward to a Democrat in the White House and Republicans controlling congress. I think he's wrong -- I think Kerry is an ultra-leftist who presents a very serious threat to freedom in America. But I can understand where Jude is coming from. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:49 PM | link
YES, BUT IS IT ETHICAL? Liberals normally don't like free markets. But here's one they love -- a way to buy more votes for John Kerry in swing states. It's a vote-swapping site called VotePair.org. Don't tell yourself that this is just some Internet-age breakthrough in voting technology. As the site says, "Defeat George Bush - Support Third Parties - Build a progressive majority". From the Harvard Crimson: Democrats in Massachusetts can now trade their votes with third-party supporters in battleground states, thanks to a website run by a Harvard alum. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:41 PM | link
FORM BLOW-OFF New York Times "public editor" Dan Okrent has become very facile a blowing off inquiries about the liberal bias of the "newspaper of record." Now he's sending everyone the same weasley form letter about the Times' coverage of the Al Qaqaa explosives. I've heard from a dozen readers who have all gotten the same one I reported yesterday. As reader John Primmer put it, "Okrent’s statement that we have to let the story 'play out over the next several days' is remarkable isn't it? Talk about Ready! Fire! Aim! We need a new pithy phrase to match Rathergate's 'false but accurate.' How about 'false, but hope is on the way.'" Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:32 PM | link
GET THEE TO A NUNNERY ...or something like that. When George Soros isn't manipulating markets, he's addressing the National Press Club saying that if Bush is re-elected, "I shall go into some kind of monastery." Promises, promises. Thanks to reader Jill Olson for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:06 PM | link
BUSH FUTURES UNDER MASSIVE ATTACK The Bush futures contracts at Tradesports.com are being attacked by massive selling. So far today total volume is twice the all-time record, and the night is still young. From a high today of 56.7 (indicating a 56.7% probability of Bush's re-election), they've traded as low as 49.5, the bottom so far in a downward cascade that started about three hours ago. This is the continuation of another attack that lasted for an hour last night, starting just before the close at 2:30am EDT. In both cases formidable buying support has come in. Now it's at 50 and at 49, and whenever the seller relaxes his offers the contract spurts into the low 50's again (it just traded at 54 for a moment, up 5 points in a split second -- and then back to 50 again). It seems that the wannabe George Soros (or is it Soros himself?) masterminding this has a little competition now.
The New Mexico and Ohio contracts have also come under attack at the same time. Note carefully the scale used in these charts, to appreciate the magnitude of these price moves over a short period. New Mexico: Ohio: Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:08 PM | link
Wednesday, October 27, 2004 KRUGMAN'S REMOTE ANCESTORS FOUND Now we know why he's so worried about "the little people." Thanks to reader Jill Olson for the link.Update... James Crystal adds: "Maybe the 'hobbit' bones were those of a midget. Hey, right now little Krugman' physical size soars above his intellectual acuity and dwarfs his integrity quotient." Update 2... Jill Olson digs deeper and earns the coveted Good Taste Is Timeless Award: "Did you read the whole thing? It also talks about Andrew Sullivan's ancestors." Update 3... Reader Vivek Rao asks, "I'm on your side -- the side of free enterprise -- and try to help in the fight against Krugmanism. But I think that mocking his height is overly personal and detracts from your site. We dislike him because he's a nasty, dishonest, socialist -- not because he's short. Right?" Fair question, and the answer is "yes." I don't dislike Krugman because he is short. But I do dislike him for more reasons than just that he is a nasty, dishonest, socialist (though I admit he is certainly all those things). Another reason I dislike him is his haughty, arrogant pose of infallibility -- the snotty, condescending, know-it-all tone he assumes when he writes from the august pages of America's newspaper of record. I do not intend to ever grant him the authoritativeness he pretends to have, or accord him any respect at all based on his pedigree or position. One way I can puncture his pedigree and position is to constantly show that this man is not the titan he pretends to be. As anyone knows who has seen him on television or in person, he is a short, pudgy, whiny, stuttering, shifty-eyed, ill-groomed, gray little homunculus. Keep that in mind when you read his New York Times columns -- it puts everything in perspective. Am I stooping to name-calling? If I am, too bad. The emperor has no clothes, and I intend to keep calling him naked. Update 4... Reader Joe Cambria pleads, "Please tell me you would never subject us to a naked Krugman. The mere thought is horrifying." Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:25 PM | link
Here's the letter: I can only assume from your sensational front-page story on how the US supposedly allowed for the Al Qaqaa facility to be looted and hundreds of tons of explosives that you meant to interfere in the election, in favor of your candidate John Kerry. The story is without basis and if there was ever a time for an investigation (external) of your journalistic practices, this is it. Yesterday, I received an email from a friend, outraged at the Bush Administration's actions, as described in your story. I told him that if I believed the New York Times, I might be upset too. However, it's a sad testament to how far the "newspaper of record" has fallen, when I have to doubt the veracity of a front page story, with so much importance, so close to the election.Okrent's reply I appreciate your concerns about The Times's reporting on the explosives missing from the Al Qaqaa site in Iraq. However, I think it is much too early to come to a conclusion that there is error here. I note three factors in particular: NBC News's clarification of their early report; The Times's on-the-record citation of the unit commander who arrived at Al Qaqaa on April 10 asserting that his troops did not conduct a search; and, finally, some mixed signals from the White House. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:36 PM | link
Tuesday, October 26, 2004 KRUGMAN BOMBS Outstanding sentence by sentence refutation of Paul Krugman's latest column on Radio Free Roider.Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 4:32 PM | link
WHY DON'T I FEEL SAFER NOW? Larry Kudlow quotes John Kerry: "With the same energy...I put into going after the Viet Cong and trying to win for our country, I pledge to you I will hunt down and capture or kill the terrorists before they harm us." So what does that mean exactly? Secretary of State Jane Fonda bringing fruit baskets to al Qaeda camps? Thanks to reader Perry Eidelbus for the link. And don't miss Kudlow's new blog! Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:41 PM | link
READER VERSUS OKRENT ON THE SWIFT BOAT VETS I get dozens of letters each week from readers fed up with blow-offs and cover-ups from New York Times "public editor" Dan Okrent -- supposedly the "readers' representative." Here's one particularly thoughtful and well documented case from reader Bruce Kesler. The New York Times' exalted view of itself extends to naming Daniel Okrent its "public editor." Other newspapers have ombudsmen (or ombudswomen) or readers' representatives. There's real meaning in that different nomenclature. Daniel Okrent does not represent the concerns of the New York Times' readers to Times management and reporters, to improve the Times' reporting. Although Mr. Okrent labels himself the readers' representative, his record shows, instead, he represents his own views -- and in effect that of Times management -- to the readers. Below are excerpts from my correspondence with Mr. Okrent, to which his assistant Arthur Bovino replied, along with some temporal context. Following the August 2004 uproar over the contentions of the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth in their book Unfit for Command, first almost entirely covered in the conservative media and then disclaimed by Kerry spokespeople in the more liberal mainstream media, I wrote to Mr. Okrent on September 8:
Contained in that email was my Short Guide to the Kerry-Vietnam
Contentions, "which may be useful to any who do wish to investigate and
report." That Short Guide was also published in the Augusta Free Press
on September 10 ("30 Questions"). Informed reporters responded favorably to its
balanced outline of the supporting evidence to the Swiftees and of issues
unresolved as John Kerry refuses to release his full military records and his
journal. For example, Michael Dobbs of the Washington Post, the only
mainstream reporter who bothered to make an investigation of one of the
incidents -- Kerry's Bronze Star -- wrote me on August 28, "Thanks for your
Short Guide. You make some good points. We will follow the story." Mr.
Dobbs' August 22 investigation stated he was denied access to Kerry's full
records and journal.
10. Kerry Failure to "Come Clean":
Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:28 PM | link
MORE GROSS INCOMPETENCE IN FINANCIAL JOURNALISM It's amazing how close liberals can come to the truth -- so close they are tripping over it -- and still not see it. But ignorance and partisanship are powerful inhibitors to perception. Here's a Slate piece from Daniel Gross (whom we've encountered before) -- one of those know-nothing financial journalists who write in a know-it-all tone of voice that passes for expertise in most publications -- writing on how millionaires overwhelmingly support Bush, but billionaires support Kerry. Gross writes, "The specter of plutocrats spending millions of their own hard-earned dollars to elect somebody who wants to raise their taxes is mystifying to the materialists at the Wall Street Journal editorial page and the Club for Growth, who think that man is a purely economic being who lives and dies by marginal tax rates alone. But to many people who have made f***-you money, taxes are a byproduct of wealth, not an obstacle to its creation. It's hard to find anybody who has made $1 billion, or $100 million, or even $50 million complaining about high marginal tax rates. Of all the luxuries massive wealth affords, one of the nicest is not having to worry about tax policy."Believe me, the Wall Street Journal editorial page has understood for many years what Gross thinks is a new and exciting insight. Many, many times they've written about it -- putting it in far sharper terms than those of Gross: the rich have the luxury of supporting socialist policies that retard wealth creation, because they don't need to create wealth (they already have it); and, in fact, retarding new wealth creation blocks upstart competition. Yet Gross rhapsodizes about the enlightened rich, congratulating them for spending their time thinking about "the environment, education, foreign policy, the Supreme Court, social issues, stem-cell research, the war on drugs, whatever." Thanks to reader Vivek Rao for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:07 AM | link
Monday, October 25, 2004 GEE, I WISH I'D WRITTEN THIS Here's what we've been waiting for -- and what I should have done myself. A careful, accurate, point-by-point takedown of Kerry's mountain of misrepresentations about Bush's vision for reforming Social Security through individual accounts. Must reading if you want to really understand the issues at stake here and make your own decision about who's right. Thanks to Bruce Bartlett for the link.Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:11 PM | link
KRUGMAN ON THE COUCH A psychiatrist blogger takes on Paul Krugman: While granting that there is certainly a lot of hate in individuals of both sides (hate, after all, is a HUMAN emotion and all of us are human), the interesting thing about the hate that Krugman generates is that it is disguised and self-righteous. It is then "projected" onto Bush and the Republicans, so that he (Krugman) does not have to take any responsibiity for feeling that way. In Krugman's opinion, his way of viewing the world is the only correct way, so why should he have to provide any evidence? The Gospel according to Paul Krugman. So holy that he never needs to examine his own emotions, beliefs, or premises. Some part of Paul Krugman recognizes that something dreadful is going on in the world, but he cannot face it directly because it is too threatening to his world-view and his holy scripture; and facing the truth might make him have to go into his own heart of hearts to examine the origins of that dreadful terror. Hence, displacing his anxiety to a less threatening authority figure (e.g., Bush/Republicans) is easier than facing the source of the anxiety. The three psychological mechanisms (projection, denial, and displacement) that Krugman routinely displays in his writings are the source of almost all human misery, genocide, racism, anti-semitism, sexism, and now terrorism that we see all over the world. If Paul Krugman wants to know where [these] originate, then he needs to look in the mirror, not at the Republican Party.Thanks to reader Christine VanDeVelde for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:35 PM | link
Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:33 PM | link
That's simply not true. I have sent Okrent well over a hundred messages over the last ten months, and have never gotten this response. I sent a test message just now, and the instant response I got does not say what Okrent claims it says. The closest it comes is where it says:
I've saved every response I've ever gotten from Okrent, and this is the same text he's been using for months. Okrent's home page on the Times web site doesn't even go that far, when it invites readers to write to Okrent. Not that it matters. This email was sent to Nagourney, not Okrent, so he wouldn't have seen the response even if it existed. And Okrent never intended to give the reader the option to have his name and address withheld, anyway. Okrent told me two weeks ago, "I neither asked for permission nor felt it necessary." The reader says he "pleaded with your [Okrent's] assistant and Mr. Nagourney not to." So why even bother in the first place with the false claim that readers are given an option? Okrent says in yesterday's column,
It's a serious lapse of judgment on Okrent's part to act as though this letter -- which in no way threatened Nagourney -- is a "grievous act." It seems that Okrent has just had it up to here with the readers he is supposed to represent, because this particular reader's only "grievous act" was to express his strongly different opinion to an employee of the New York Times. If Okrent thinks that's anything like vandalizing a church, then his attitude about the Times is entirely too worshipful. Okrent used the power of the Times to lash out at a reader who's only sin was needing Okrent's representation. His column yesterday is a further mis-step -- first by only apologizing for the trivial detail of calling the reader a "coward," and second by publishing a false claim about his policies with regard to the emails he receives. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:05 AM | link
Sunday, October 24, 2004
His final entry was an outraged response to my column nailing him for his loathsome complicity in the anti-Semitism of Malaysian strongman Mahathir Mohammed. That was typical of how Krugman used to use the site -- to respond to his critics and to lash out at them. That, of course, just gave the critics more ammunition -- which led Krugman to take ever more extreme measures against him, such as publicly accusing me of stalking him (which he did just one week before he stopped updating his web page). Now Krugman has realized that it's best to strike the pose of someone so authoritative that no response to critics is necessary. He hides, on the op-ed page of the New York Times, behind the skirts of editor Gail Collins, and behind the fig-leaf of "public editor" Dan Okrent, neither of whom are willing to hold him to even the most minimal standards of truthfulness. He gives lectures before adoring crowds, where questions from critics are filtered out. And he gives interviews to adoring journalists, to whom he can complain that it is he who is the victim of anti-Semitism, rather than its perpetrator. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:01 PM | link
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