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7:00 pm EDT
Tuesday, January 6
Unindicted co-counterconspirator-in-chief Donald Luskin will appear on CNBC's Kudlow & Company. Don will be debating Peter Schiff -- yes, sigh, Peter Schiff -- about the future of the economy and the markets.

Chronicle of the Conspiracy
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Friday, October 13, 2006

MORE OF THE SAME   My SmartMoney.com column for today:
It looks now like the Republican Party will lose majority control of the House of Representatives in the November election — and perhaps its control of the Senate, too. Should investors care? Will Democratic control of Congress move the market?

So how will the GOP losing control of Congress affect the economy and the markets? For a while it looked like the good feelings arising from falling gasoline prices would be enough to change the national mood in favor of GOP incumbents. But the Mark Foley scandal seems to have ended all that.

The chart below shows the prices of the futures contracts on House control traded online at Tradesports.com. Their prices reflect the percentage probability that the GOP will retain its majority. I've plotted the futures against the average price of regular gasoline, on an upside-down scale. All year, when the gas price was low, the GOP's probability of victory was high. When the gas price rose, the GOP's chances fell in tandem.

Over the last couple of weeks the gasoline price has fallen sharply. For a while the GOP's chances moved up, to well over 50%. But then the Foley scandal struck — and suddenly the price of gas didn't matter. It looks to me like it's all over for the GOP. The futures contracts are trading now at just 40%. Historically, with the election this close, 40% has been a sure indicator of failure.

I don't think it will make much difference one way or the other. And from me, that's quite a statement — my firm specializes in advising investors on how political events will affect markets and the economy.

Don't get me wrong. Politics is still the most important factor in determining economic growth. Government decisions about monetary policy, taxes, regulation and trade can cause booms, busts and everything in between.

And before we go any further, let me lay my own political cards on the table. I'm not a member of either major party, nor a donor to them. If you must know, I'm a registered Libertarian. When it comes to economic policy, Republicans tend to come a lot closer to my views about what makes growth and prosperity possible. (Social policies? Don't get me started!)

So why am I not worried that the pro-growth Republican party will probably lose control of Congress?

First and foremost, because with one important exception, the Republican Congress hasn't actually delivered much pro-growth legislation. Yes, there was the 2003 tax cut on dividends, capital gains, and wage income, and the extension of those cuts through 2010, enacted earlier this year. Bravo. But what else has there been?

Let me see.... Social Security privatization? Nope. Trade liberalization? Nyet. Estate tax repeal? Non. Malpractice and tort reform? Nada. Government spending restraint? Surely you jest!

So will we suffer from the lack of pro-growth legislation under a Democratic Congress? Maybe. But we're already suffering from the same thing now, under a Republican Congress.

But what about the opposite? Am I not concerned that a Democratic congress will enact outright anti-growth legislation?

Well, let's see. They might push through new regulations that impose horrific new costs on small public companies. No, wait — the Republicans already did that with Sarbanes-Oxley. Or the Democrats might enact sweeping new welfare-state legislation that will bust the budget for generations to come. Sorry, the GOP already did that with the Medicare prescription-drug benefit.

But as a general matter, I'm satisfied that a GOP minority will do its best to block just about anything the Democratic majority wants to do — just for the sake of blocking, growth or no growth. And when it comes to really important stuff like preserving the 2003 tax cuts, I just can't bring myself to believe that the GOP would go along with Democratic efforts to repeal them, and surely President Bush would veto any legislation that did.

In fact, there's a chance that being cast out of congressional control will re-focus the Republican Party on its growth agenda. If the GOP loses control, in large part it will be because it so terribly disappointed people just like me — people who are fundamentally apolitical, but very interested in growth and prosperity. Perhaps a humbled GOP will figure out what it has to do to win me back.

Are there any election outcomes that could possibly move the market? Yes, I think there are two.

There could be a vast Democratic sweep — one of such scope that an antigrowth agenda would actually manage to get enacted by steamrolling over a smaller-than-expected Republican minority.

Or there could be a GOP upset. If the GOP manages to hang on to control, despite the perfect storm the party faces today, then perhaps some Democrats would realize that there must really be something to this growth thing. Maybe the pro-growth Democrats who voted against GOP initiatives such as estate-tax repeal will vote their conscience next time, instead of lining up behind party unity.

But those outcomes are unlikely. The likely outcome is that the GOP loses the House by a small margin, and hangs onto the Senate by a couple of seats. For the markets, it will be a nonevent.

But maybe, longer term, if the GOP can learn from its mistakes, the chances for pro-growth legislation will actually improve.

Hey — I can always hope!

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:10 PM | link   

GOOD RIDDANCE TO BAD RUBBISH   Gail Collins is out as editorial page editor at the New York Times. It's back to writing columns about what type of Birkenstocks truly eco-conscious women should wear.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:57 PM | link   


Thursday, October 12, 2006

JOKE OF THE DAY  

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 3:09 PM | link   

THAT ILLEGAL MONEY IS LEGAL AFTER ALL   Our good friend Jim Glass comments on my recent posting about "liberty dollars" and a Washington Post story claiming that this home-made money is illegal.
The WaPo story on Liberty Dollars ("the only thing Liberty Dollars buy in these parts is a jail term") is either very incomplete or just wrong.

Privately issued money is entirely legal in the US, provided a few technical requirement are met to prevent it from being confused with actual US currency. Moreover there are a bunch of private monies in use out there, and have been for a long time. (Check out Ithaca Hours)

The Fed even has a publication explaining them, in case you want to start your own, from which...

"Private money is not prohibited if it complies with certain government regulations. It must be smaller in size than US currency and issued in denominations of a minimum of $1...."
The WaPo story gives the strong impression that using a private money like Liberty Dollars can "buy users a prison term" because it is "phony money". But that's just not so.

The fact that private money isn't legal tender does not make it illegal -- it only means people must agree to its use voluntarily, nobody can be compelled to accept it.. If they do agree to accept it in exchange or as payment of a debt, no problem, that's a contractual agreement just like agreeing to accept euros or yen or a gold watch or a used car or whatever else in an exchange or as payment of a debt. And there's nothing illegal about asking merchants to do so.

If there is anything illegal about the use of Liberty Dollars it would be that some users are trying to palm them off on merchants by confusing them with US currency, so somebody feels compelled to accept them. But the WaPo story also reports that the issuer has taken pains to avoid just such confusion....

"Norfed Executive Director Michael Johnson says the group isn't aiming to overthrow the American monetary system. 'We're not locking horns with the Fed. I mean, that's crazy,' he said... Norfed struck the first gold- and silver-backed coins -- which, to avoid charges of making its own money it calls 'rounds' -- in 1998 ...."

If that's the case -- that Liberty Dollars aren't being confused with US currency -- then the WaPo story hasn't revealed anything illegal that's going on here. Simply getting the claimed 2,500 merchants to accept them certainly isn't illegal. The Fed itself says so. So what is?


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:24 PM | link   

INHOFE VERSUS THE NEW YORK TIMES   This is just so fabulous and juicy I won't even attempt to abstract it. Here it is in full from TimesWatch:
Thursday's editorial, "Doubting Inhofe," seems a bit defensive about Republican Sen. James Inhofe's recent scathing criticism of the credulous media coverage of global warming -- perhaps because Inhofe cites the Times' history of bad coverage of the issue, including the paper's  mid-70s warnings of "global cooling," now as passe as the Pet Rock.

"In a recent speech in the Senate, James Inhofe of Oklahoma called himself 'the senator who has spent more time educating about the actual facts about global warming.' Too bad he is not the senator who has spent more time educating himself.

"His speech, one in a series on global warming, was a brisk survey of the way the news media have covered climatic predictions over the past century. Cooling, warming -- we never get it right. Naturally, Mr. Inhofe dismisses what he calls media 'hysteria,' which is also a way of dismissing not just Al Gore but the consensus among mainstream scientists and the governments of nearly every industrialized nation concerning manmade climate change."

Strangely, the editorial doesn't offer much in the way of a rebuttal, simply assumes that Inhofe is wrong. Implicitly concedes some media faults:

"We do not expect Mr. Inhofe to see the light -- or feel the heat -- any time soon. He and his staff are serious collectors of opposition research. But the essence of his strategy is to seize upon a mistaken or overblown story to try to undermine the broad consensus. If that fails, he can always question his opponents’ politics and motives, as with his insinuations that environmentalists dreamed the whole thing up to scare people and raise money."

Inhofe, using research collected by the MRC's Business & Media Institute, noted one of three dire headlines that appeared in the media:

"A headline in the New York Times reads: 'Climate Changes Endanger World's Food Output.'"  

After reading all the headlines, Inhofe delivers the punch line: "All of this sounds very ominous. That is, until you realize that the three quotes I just read were from articles in 1975 editions of Newsweek Magazine and The New York Times, and Time Magazine in 1974....A December 29, 1974 New York Times article on global cooling reported that climatologists believed 'the facts of the present climate change are such that the most optimistic experts would assign near certainty to major crop failure in a decade.'"

Oops.

Inhofe has already responded to this morning's editorial in a press release: "My recent speeches detailing the embarrassing 100 year history of the media's relentless climate hype and its flip flopping between global cooling and warming scares must have struck a nerve in the old gray lady of the New York Times....A significant portion of my 50 minute Senate floor speech on September 25th was devoted to the New York Times history of swinging between promoting fears of a coming ice age to promoting fears of global warming....Now, fast forward to August 19, 2000, the New York Times was so eager to promote fears of the Arctic melting that it cheapened itself with a comical article declaring 'The North Pole is Melting.' The Times reporter, John Noble Wilford, noted that tourists visiting the North Pole saw open water and declared that 'The last time scientists can be certain the pole was awash in water, was more than 50 million years ago.' Wow. Pretty convincing stuff -- that is until the Times was forced to retract the story 10 days later and admit nothing unusual had occurred at the pole. No wonder today's Times editorial felt compelled to accuse me of 'a hysteria of doubt,' it was no doubt a clumsy attempt to distract from their climate reporting legacy of hysteria."


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:24 PM | link   

OUR "BROKEN" HEALTH CARE SYSTEM   My anonymous DC lawyer/lobbyist friend was pleased by this admission in the New York Times that maybe there's actually something good going on in America -- and in American health care, yet! According to IPI Techbytes,
The New York Times ran a story looking at Nobel Laureates in medicine. According to the Times, “In the last 10 years, for instance, 12 Nobel Prizes in medicine have gone to American-born scientists working in the United States, 3 have gone to foreign-born scientists working in the United States, and just 7 have gone to researchers working outside the country.”

Pretty impressive, we’d say.

Moreover, of the “six most important medical innovations of the last 25 years,” four of them “were developed in American hospitals or by American companies,” and one other was “improved” in the U.S. The Times goes on to say, “Even when the initial research is done overseas, the American system leads in converting new ideas into workable commercial technologies.”


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:19 PM | link   


Wednesday, October 11, 2006

YOU HAVE TO SEE THIS WITH YOUR OWN EYES   Click here. Thanks to a DC lobbyist friend for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:22 PM | link   

ANOTHER AFFIRMATIVE ACTION DISASTER   An especially dumb column by Alan Murray in today's Wall Street Journal, beginning with an idea worthy of CBS's "60 Minutes," from whose show last Sunday he apparently stole it:
If there were more women on the top rungs of the corporate ladder, it might be easier to overlook the fact that the Hewlett-Packard board has booted two of them in 20 months. But there aren't -- the number of female CEOs at Fortune 500 companies can be counted on two hands. So you have to wonder: does gender have something to do with it?
What follows is a pointless rehash of the known facts in the H-P spying affair, having nothing especially to do with the gender of the protagonists. Why wouldn't Murray wonder whether gender had anything to do with why Pattie Dunn was invited to join the board of H-P in the first place? She had no appropriate experience or qualifications whatsoever -- except that she was female, at a time when corporate boards were desperate to add women to their ranks. Another affirmative action disaster? Probably.

Thanks to Tom Blumer for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:57 AM | link   

A MEDIA PHENOMENON   Maybe not everywhere and always, but at least in Iran.
Iran's hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has blamed the media for rising inflation, after the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged him to control surging prices, a press report said Tuesday.

"A wave of propaganda created by national and non-national media in the past months has played up the issue of rising prices," Ahmadinejad said in a cabinet meeting, cited by Aftab-e Yazd daily.

These media "have sought to portray the government as incapable as if it had been supposed to reduce the inflation [rate] to zero percent within a year," he said. "Inflation had always existed and it had even risen by 50 percent under previous governments."

Prompted by surging prices for staples in the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, Khamenei urged the government to control inflation. "In the last weeks, the issue of high prices has put a lot of pressure on people, especially low-income ones. So the government and officials should look into the causes of the issue and solve it," Khamenei said earlier this month.

The official rate of inflation stands at an average of just over 10 percent, but unofficial sources estimate that the figure is close to double that rate.

The prices of staples such as meat and chicken have surged in recent weeks, sparking complaints by Iranian families and getting front-page coverage in the press.

Ahmadinejad said that the extermination of millions of chickens in a bid to fend off bird flu in February was the reason for rising meat and poultry prices.

Ahmadinejad was elected on a platform of delivering the oil riches of OPEC's number-two exporter to the people but economists have warned expansionist economic and monetary policies risk fueling inflation.

A group of leading university academics wrote in a letter printed in the Iranian press in June that Ahmadinejad's economic policies were "lacking a scientific and expert basis" and risked causing "persistent inflation."

Sounds like there's been a lot of cheating during Ramadan. Shouldn't food prices fall during a month of fasting?

Thanks again to our correspondent "Irrational Exuberance."

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:52 AM | link   

A VEGETABLE PHENOMENON   That's what inflation everywhere and always is, apparently. Reuters:
Mexican Central Bank Governor Guillermo Ortiz forecast on Tuesday that inflationary pressures in Mexico would remain high for the next two months but ease by the end of the year...

Ortiz said it was normal that analysts were revising their outlook for the rest of 2006 after September's price spike, due in part to volatility in the price of staple vegetables like tomatoes, because of weather-induced supply shortages.

Thanks to our correspondent "Irrational Exuberance" for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:16 AM | link   


Tuesday, October 10, 2006

THE WORST IDEA IN HISTORY   And the most fraudulent. When these guys go to create an SEC-registered mutual fund, hopefully they'll have to be more honest than to present this data-mined back-tested 20/20-hindsight "research" that "proves" that Left-leaning companies perform better.
U.S. companies that donate money to the Democratic party posted far higher returns than those that support the Republicans, turning on its head the conventional wisdom that the Grand Old Party is best for business.

According to research released on Tuesday, so-called "blue" companies that fund Democrats and also meet certain ethical requirements topped both the broader stock market and "red" companies that favor Republicans in the last five years.

This means a company's political leanings could forecast performance as much as more traditional indicators such as price to earnings ratios, executives at New York-based money manager Blue Investment Management found.

The "Blue Large Cap Index," which includes digital music device and personal computer maker Apple Computer Inc. and coffee shop chain Starbucks Corp. outperformed the market by 13.1 percent and "red" companies by 15.6 percent annually over the past five years, the researchers said.

"There is a myth in America that Republicans are both better for business and at business and I disagree on both counts," Daniel de Faro Adamson, co-founder and CEO of Blue Investment Management, told Reuters.

"Just as Democrats in the White House have a longer-run view on economic success, our data show that Democrats in the boardroom who use progressive leadership techniques are better able to create long-term shareholder value," he said.

Next week the firm, created on a car trip last summer, will launch the first ever mutual funds to focus on Democratic values, putting the firm's research to a live test.

This, by the way, illuminates the fundamental paradigm on which my firm Trend Macrolytics operates. We believe that investors are systematically irrational when it comes to politics -- so we look for political events that will trigger unexpected market outcomes. These fools at Blue Investment Management will be easy pickings for our strategy.

Thanks to reader Jameson Campaigne for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:21 PM | link   

COUNTERFEITING, OR COMPETITION FOR THE GOVERNMENT MONOPOLY ON MONEY?   I guess the competition is getting too hot. The U.S. Mint has declared that "liberty dollars" are illegal to use in commerce.
The U.S. Mint acted after federal prosecutors around the country began forwarding inquiries about the coins. "We don't take these consumer alerts lightly," said spokeswoman Becky Bailey. "Merchants and banks are confronted by confused customers demanding they accept Liberty Dollars. These are not legal coin."

Norfed [the organization behind liberty dollars] responded to the Mint on its Web site. "Here it is in plain sight . . . the Liberty Dollar is not a coin, not legal tender, and backed with inflation proof gold and silver!"

Norfed encouraged people to keep doing "the drop," referring to its advice to drop the coin into merchants' hands so they can feel its weight.

That could land the dropper in prison, Bailey warns, for up to five years.

Learn more about Norfed and liberty dollars here. Thanks to our correspondent "Irrational Exuberance" for the link.

Update... Reader James Jaeger sends along this link to an online film about the Federal Reserve and the conspiracy to monopolize money -- "Fiat Money." Should be interesting. I see congressman Ron Paul is listed among those responsible for the film.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:35 PM | link   

SORRY, WE'RE NOT GIVING AWAY HAMBURGERS   That's what you might have thought based on the name of this website, freepatty.com. Nope. It's tee-shirts promoting disgraced HP chairwoman Pattie Dunn. Was the URL "freepattie.com" already taken? Nope. Type that into your browser, and it takes you to the same place. Thanks to reader Chris Browne for the link.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:16 AM | link   

THE NOBLE NOBEL   I can only imagine how it's sticking in Paul Krugman's craw -- not only that he didn't win the Nobel Prize in economics yesterday, but that once again the prize went to a champion of capitalism and freedom. This year's winner, Edmund Phelps, has a long op-ed in the Wall Street Journal this morning. The name Keynes is not mentioned. Instead, the references are to Hayek and Ayn Rand. The theme is a moral defense of capitalism, contrasting the dynamism of the US economy -- and its ability to produce wealth and justice -- to the sclerotic "social safety net" societies of Europe that Krugman admires so much. Here's a taste:
The American and Continental systems are not operationally equivalent, contrary to some neoclassical views. Let me use the word "dynamism" to mean the fertility of the economy in coming up with innovative ideas believed to be technologically feasible and profitable--in short, the economy's talent at commercially successful innovating. In this terminology, the free enterprise system is structured in such a way that it facilitates and stimulates dynamism while the Continental system impedes and discourages it.

Wasn't the Continental system designed to stifle dynamism? When building the massive structures of corporatism in interwar Italy, theoreticians explained that their new system would be more dynamic than capitalism--maybe not more fertile in little ideas, such as might come to petit-bourgeois entrepreneurs, but certainly in big ideas. Not having to fear fluid market conditions, an entrenched company could afford to develop radical innovation. And with industrial confederations and state mediation available, such companies could arrange to avoid costly duplication of their investments. The state and its instruments, the big banks, could intervene to settle conflicts about the economy's direction. Thus the corporatist economy was expected to usher in a new futurismo that was famously symbolized by Severini's paintings of fast trains. (What was important was that the train was rushing forward, not that it ran on time.)

Friedrich Hayek, in the late 1930s and early '40s, began the modern theory of how a capitalist system, if pure enough, would possess the greatest dynamism--not socialism and not corporatism. First, virtually everyone right down to the humblest employees has "know-how," some of what Michael Polanyi called "personal knowledge" and some merely private knowledge, and out of that an idea may come that few others would have. In its openness to the ideas of all or most participants, the capitalist economy tends to generate a plethora of new ideas.

Second, the pluralism of experience that the financiers bring to bear in their decisions gives a wide range of entrepreneurial ideas a chance of insightful evaluation. And, importantly, the financier and the entrepreneur do not need the approval of the state or of social partners. Nor are they accountable later on to such social bodies if the project goes badly, not even to the financier's investors. So projects can be undertaken that would be too opaque and uncertain for the state or social partners to endorse. Lastly, the pluralism of knowledge and experience that managers and consumers bring to bear in deciding which innovations to try, and which to adopt, is crucial in giving a good chance to the most promising innovations launched. Where the Continental system convenes experts to set a product standard before any version is launched, capitalism gives market access to all versions.

Update... The pseudonymous blogger "Donny Baseball" thinks I missed the money quote (there were, indeed so many). He likes this one:
Why, then...is capitalism so reviled in Western Continental Europe? ...it appears that the recent street protesters associate business with established wealth; in their minds, giving greater latitude to businesses would increase the privileges of old wealth. By an "entrepreneur" they appear to mean a rich owner of a bank or factory, while for Schumpeter and Knight it meant a newcomer, a parvenu who is an outsider. A tremendous confusion is created by associating "capitalism" with entrenched wealth and power. The textbook capitalism of Schumpeter and Hayek means opening up the economy to new industries, opening industries to start-up companies, and opening existing companies to new owners and new managers. It is inseparable from an adequate degree of competition.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:19 AM | link   


Monday, October 09, 2006

WHAT'S WORSE THAN NORTH KOREAN NUKES?   From Newsday:
...New York's Conservative Party said it was offering a free download on its Web site (www.cpnys.org) of a book prepared by The American Conservative Union titled "Hillary Rodham Clinton_What Every American Should Know."

The book's opening provides the flavor: "Some people fear nuclear attacks from third-world countries. Others fear a catastrophic collapse of the U.S. economy. But if you want to feel intense, gut-wrenching fear, consider this fact: There's a good chance that the Clintons will be back in the White House in 2009."

The book reviews a host of investigations that made headlines when the Clintons were in the White House.

"New York voters owe it to themselves to take a look at our free e-book," said state Conservative Party Chairman Michael Long. "It reveals a Hillary Clinton far, far different from the image created by her consultants and pollsters."

Here's a link to the free e-book, thanks to reader Jameson Campaigne.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:39 PM | link   

THE NOBEL IN ECONOMICS   Once again, it doesn't go to Krugman. How could it possibly, when monumental work like that of Edmund Phelps remains to be recognized and rewarded? Phelps has a special place in my heart for his breakthrough work, paralleling Milton Friedman's, to overturn the tyranny of the "Phillips Curve." Phelps' "expectations-augmented Phillips Curve" has now been adopted by the economics establishment, and is abused about as much as the original Phillips Curve conception as an excuse for central bank intervention in the economy. But in its time it was a revolutionary piece of work, laying the groundwork for the fundamental questioning of the ability of a central bank to finetune economic outcomes. Bravo!

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:09 PM | link   


Sunday, October 08, 2006

COLLECTIVE WEASEL   Dilbert creator Scott Adams is running another in his series of Weasel Awards polls. Under the category "Weaseliest Pundit/Reporter", the list of possible candidates from the New York Times is so extensive that they are compressed into a single entry: "Staff of the NY Times." More likely Bill O'Reilly will take the prize, though. Take a look at last year's poll results. The "Weaseliest Country" award went to the United States.

Thanks to our correspondent "Irrational Exuberance" for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:52 AM | link   

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!   And three years early, too boot. Why no mainstream media fanfare? Tom Blumer has the story on BizzyBlog:
Despite the costs of the Iraq War, the rest of the War on Terror, Katrina relief, and not nearly enough control over other spending, the administration has accomplished its goal of cutting the reported deficit in half by the time it leaves office a full three years early (fiscal 2009, which ends a little less than three years from now, is the last budget over which the Bush Administration will have responsibility). Andrew Taylor of the Associated Press reported on the deficit yesterday (commented on here) but “somehow” missed this little nugget of good news, even though he reported on the administration’s original fiscal 2004 promise in a “not going to happen” manner just under a year ago on October 14, 2005 (last two paragraphs at link) –-
The White House has set a goal of cutting the deficit in half from the $521 billion prediction for 2004 that it issued at the beginning of that year. (the original goal was therefore set sometime before October 1, 2003, the beginning of the 2004 fiscal year — Ed.)

The administration says it is still on track to reach that $260 billion goal by the time Bush leaves office. But administration budget projections leave out the long-term costs of occupying Iraq and Afghanistan, and have yet to be updated with cost estimates of hurricane relief.

Even with all of those costs included, the administration has reached its goal. How ’bout that, Andrew?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:52 AM | link   


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